Tomorrow, oil prices will change again

2022-07-09 0 By

During the Domestic Spring Festival holiday, international oil prices hit a new high since 2016 under a lot of good news, rising in the past week, towards 100 yuan mark.As a result, domestic oil prices are likely to rise at 24:00 on February 17.Since February, international crude oil prices have generally risen, with mostly positive fundamentals, and U.S. crude oil once topped $90 / barrel.Although the United States released the news that part of the Iran nuclear agreement is about to be concluded, which led to the active departure of bulls, oil prices fell for a short time, but as the United States oil inventories fell, international oil prices rebounded again.Light crude for March delivery rose $3.22, or 3.58%, to settle at $93.10 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.London Brent crude for April delivery rose $3.03, or 3.31%, to settle at $94.44 a barrel.”On the whole, this cycle is dominated by strong fluctuations in international crude oil prices, leading to high fluctuations in the domestic reference rate of crude oil change.”Zhuo Chuang information refined oil analyst Wang Luqing said.The change rate of crude oil monitored by the agency is 3.31 percent, and gasoline and diesel are expected to rise by 145 yuan per ton.According to Jin Lianguang’s calculation, by the sixth working day of The 11th, the change rate of 3.05%, the average price of reference oil 90.58 US dollars, domestic gasoline and diesel should be increased by 150 yuan/ton.Jin Lianchuang analyst Wang Shan believes that the later crude oil or pressure shock, but only 4 working days away from the price adjustment window, due to the influence of inertia, the probability of this round of retail price increase is still large, the increase is expected to be about 100 yuan/ton.Wang Luqing also believes that the current international oil market performance is strong reality and weak expectations, the Iranian nuclear agreement after the increase of supply needs time, and the current US low inventory, and it is difficult to replenish the stock, so the international crude oil price may continue to be strong trend.It is highly likely that the retail price limit of domestic refined oil products will be raised on February 17, when the retail price limit of domestic refined oil products may achieve “four consecutive increases”.Wang Shan analysis, the Spring Festival holiday crude oil significantly higher support for the oil market.In terms of supply and demand, affected by environmental inspection and other factors, the operation rate of local refineries continues to decline, and the output of refined oil products shows a tightening trend.As the price adjustment window approaches, the retail price cashed in “four consecutive rises” is a high probability event.Editor: Yuan Yuan Source: Economic Information Daily