There are liquor enterprises push a big production expansion plan.In the evening of February 18, jinshiyuan (603369) announced that it planned to invest 9.076 billion yuan to build the south factory intelligent wine storage center project, which is expected to increase the annual production capacity of high-quality luzhou-flavor original wine of 18,000 tons, the annual production capacity of high-quality elegant maotai-flavor original wine of 20,000 tons, the semi-open wine storage capacity of 80,000 tons, the pottery pot storage capacity of 210,000 tons,By then, the production capacity of the company will reach 102,000 tons/year.In recent years, as liquor enters the era of brand and scale competition, the leading liquor enterprises in order to gain a firm foothold in the market competition, have intensified their efforts and set off a wave of production expansion in the industry. With the gradual release of capacity, whether there will be excess capacity of liquor in the future has become a hot topic in the market.In fact, the expansion of this time is not unexpected, the company has disclosed on several occasions before.Looking through the q&A for investors since 2021, at least three mention capacity expansion plans.According to reports, the company’s existing wine production capacity of 27,000 tons, is expected to increase 38,000 tons of production capacity in the next five years, the base wine inventory, existing and new capacity can support the “14th five-year” sales target and more long-term sales demand.From the planning scale, the aforementioned information and the disclosure of the content is basically consistent.According to the announcement, the total production capacity of raw wine reached by the south Plant intelligent brewing and aging Storage Center project planned by Shiyuan is just 38,000 tons, of which luzhou-flavor, elegant maotai-flavor production capacity distribution is 18,000 tons, 20,000 tons;At the same time, semi-open wine storehouse with 80,000 tons of reserves and pottery storehouse with 210,000 tons of reserves will be built. The production capacity of kool-making will also reach 102,000 tons per year. The above production capacity will gradually enter the production stage from September 2023 to December 2026.In terms of investment scale, the total investment is 9.076 billion yuan, divided into five years, including fixed asset investment of 8.52 billion yuan, working capital of 556 million yuan, will be self-funded by its own capital + other financing methods.By the end of the third quarter of 2021, the monetary fund balance of Jinshi Yuan is 3.135 billion yuan, and there is another 2.9 billion yuan of trading financial assets, and the net operating cash flow has been maintained at more than 1 billion yuan since 2017. From the five-year investment cycle of the project, the financial strength of the company should be able to support the project investment.Is the $9 billion investment plan too aggressive?This shiyuan has also stated previously: from 2018 to 2020, the company’s liquor output will be 19,000 tons, 22,000 tons and 25,000 tons respectively, and the capacity utilization rate will be 70%, 81% and 93% respectively. It is expected that the annual capacity utilization rate will be further increased to 95% in the next five years.Near-full capacity should be a big driver of expansion.On the other hand, jinshiyuan has previously formulated the “14 five” revenue over 10 billion target, and according to the performance forecast, the company is expected to 2021 revenue of 6.3 billion yuan – 6.5 billion yuan, although the year-on-year growth rate of 23%-27%, but from 10 billion target is still a fire, and gradually released capacity is obviously helpful to achieve the target.In terms of profitability, Jinshiyuan has always maintained a gross margin level of over 70%, and is expected to achieve net profit of 1.9 billion yuan to 2.1 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year growth of 21% to 34%.In recent years, liquor industry similar jinshiyuan such a large expansion of production is not rare.In January of this year, guizhou maotai, wuliangye both expansion or technical plan, including guizhou maotai plans to invest 4.11 billion yuan, the implementation of “difference” maotai-flavor liquor from people with the first phase of the dam construction project, after the completion of the project can form series wine wine production capacity of about 12000 tons, starter-making capacity of about 29400 tons, wine storage capacity of about 36000 tons, construction period is 24 months;Wuliangye plans to implement the capacity expansion and transformation of the qu making workshop in two phases, with an investment scale of 2.75 billion yuan. The main construction contents include the qu making workshop and related supporting facilities.In 2021, After the initial investment of 779 million yuan in the construction of the first phase of the production of three areas, Jiujiu will start the second phase of the project again, the proposed investment amount is 1.5 billion yuan, will add 7,800 tons of base wine capacity and 4,000 tons of wine storage scale;Earlier, in 2020, Luzhou Laojiao announced an additional 1.463 billion yuan for the wine engineering technical transformation project, which was planned and constructed in 2016. The initial planned investment scale was 7.414 billion yuan, and the estimated cost of the project increased to 8.877 billion yuan after the increase of investment. After the completion of the project, the wine storage capacity increased from 300,000 tons to 380,000 tons.In that year, Gujinggong Wine disclosed 8.925 billion yuan wine production intelligent technology transformation project plan, construction period of 5 years, will be built into an annual output of 66,600 tons of raw wine, 284,000 tons of base wine storage, annual output of 130,000 tons of filling capacity intelligent park;Kouzi Cellar also launched the project of “Quality improvement and Efficiency improvement project of Moving Daqu Wine into Retreating area” with a total investment of 1.36 billion yuan. It plans to produce 20,000 tons of raw wine annually and the construction period will be 36 months.In recent years, liquor industry consumption upgrade speed, industry concentration gradually increased, well-known liquor enterprises are riveting enough to seize the market, in addition to brands, channels, production capacity is undoubtedly the focus of force.According to the production and marketing data, although the liquor production in China showed a downward trend, the revenue and profit scale increased year by year.In 2021, the output of liquor enterprises above designated size in China was only 715.63 million liters, down 0.59% year on year and nearly halved compared with 2016.But in the first 11 months of 2021, the total profit of liquor enterprises increased 25.64% year-on-year to 166.651 billion yuan.In terms of the number of enterprises, from January to November 2020, the number of liquor enterprises above designated size in China has decreased from over 1,500 in 2015 to 1,040, and the industry clearance has been further accelerated.Industry insiders said that in the past two years, the surge of production expansion is mainly led by leading enterprises, generally speaking, the decision is more cautious and rational, but with the release of large capacity, whether there will be overcapacity is still to be tested by the market.
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